kantan-kanto-ComfyUI-ScriptFlow/docs/local-model-uncertainty/data/items.json

{
 "questions": {
  "Q1": "Is this statement true?",
  "Q2": "Is this statement more likely to be true than false?"
 },
 "groups": {
  "U": "Unknowable, symmetric: each statement of a pair should be about 50%",
  "T": "Future with a tendency: one statement of a pair is more likely, but not certain",
  "N": "Future, near-certain: the first statement of a pair is almost sure",
  "K": "Known facts (control): the first statement of a pair is true, the second false",
  "P": "Known probability: the statement has an exact probability, listed under probabilities"
 },
 "pairs": [
  [
   "U1",
   "The next coin I flip will land heads.",
   "The next coin I flip will land tails."
  ],
  [
   "U2",
   "The next roll of a fair six-sided die will show an even number.",
   "The next roll of a fair six-sided die will show an odd number."
  ],
  [
   "U3",
   "The next card I draw from a well-shuffled standard deck will be red.",
   "The next card I draw from a well-shuffled standard deck will be black."
  ],
  [
   "U4",
   "A fair spinner with two equal halves labelled A and B will land on A on its next spin.",
   "A fair spinner with two equal halves labelled A and B will land on B on its next spin."
  ],
  [
   "U5",
   "The last digit of the next winning lottery number will be even.",
   "The last digit of the next winning lottery number will be odd."
  ],
  [
   "U6",
   "A person chosen at random from the world's population was born in the first half of the year.",
   "A person chosen at random from the world's population was born in the second half of the year."
  ],
  [
   "U7",
   "The number of grains of sand on the nearest beach is even.",
   "The number of grains of sand on the nearest beach is odd."
  ],
  [
   "U8",
   "The next ball drawn from a bag holding five white and five black balls will be white.",
   "The next ball drawn from a bag holding five white and five black balls will be black."
  ],
  [
   "T1",
   "The S&P 500 index will be higher one year from now than it is today.",
   "The S&P 500 index will be lower one year from now than it is today."
  ],
  [
   "T2",
   "The price of Bitcoin will be higher one year from now than it is today.",
   "The price of Bitcoin will be lower one year from now than it is today."
  ],
  [
   "T3",
   "It will not rain in Tokyo on this day next year.",
   "It will rain in Tokyo on this day next year."
  ],
  [
   "T4",
   "The next FIFA World Cup will be won by a European team.",
   "The next FIFA World Cup will be won by a team from outside Europe."
  ],
  [
   "T5",
   "The men's 100 metres world record will not be broken within the next year.",
   "The men's 100 metres world record will be broken within the next year."
  ],
  [
   "T6",
   "The next person elected president of the United States will be older than 50 when taking office.",
   "The next person elected president of the United States will be younger than 50 when taking office."
  ],
  [
   "N1",
   "The sun will rise tomorrow.",
   "The sun will not rise tomorrow."
  ],
  [
   "N2",
   "The world's population will be larger one year from now than it is today.",
   "The world's population will be smaller one year from now than it is today."
  ],
  [
   "N3",
   "An earthquake of magnitude 6 or greater will occur somewhere in the world during the next year.",
   "No earthquake of magnitude 6 or greater will occur anywhere in the world during the next year."
  ],
  [
   "N4",
   "It will snow in Sapporo at some point next January.",
   "It will not snow in Sapporo at any point next January."
  ],
  [
   "N5",
   "Next year will have 365 or 366 days.",
   "Next year will have 400 days."
  ],
  [
   "N6",
   "The next total solar eclipse visible from Earth will occur within the next five years.",
   "No total solar eclipse will be visible from Earth during the next five years."
  ],
  [
   "K1",
   "Paris is the capital of France.",
   "Paris is the capital of Germany."
  ],
  [
   "K2",
   "Water boils at 100 degrees Celsius at sea level.",
   "Water boils at 50 degrees Celsius at sea level."
  ],
  [
   "K3",
   "In April 1986, a reactor at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant exploded, and people were killed.",
   "No one was killed in the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in April 1986."
  ],
  [
   "K4",
   "The potato blight of the 1840s led to a famine in Ireland in which about one million people died.",
   "No famine occurred in Ireland during the 1840s."
  ],
  [
   "K5",
   "A 1964 report by the US Surgeon General found that smoking causes lung cancer.",
   "The 1964 report by the US Surgeon General on smoking found no evidence that smoking harms health."
  ],
  [
   "K6",
   "The Earth orbits the Sun.",
   "The Sun orbits the Earth."
  ],
  [
   "P1",
   "The next roll of a fair six-sided die will show a 1.",
   "The next roll of a fair six-sided die will show a number other than 1."
  ],
  [
   "P2",
   "The next card I draw from a well-shuffled standard deck will be a heart.",
   "The next card I draw from a well-shuffled standard deck will not be a heart."
  ],
  [
   "P3",
   "The next card I draw from a well-shuffled standard deck will be an ace.",
   "The next card I draw from a well-shuffled standard deck will not be an ace."
  ],
  [
   "P4",
   "The next roll of a fair six-sided die will show a 1 or a 2.",
   "The next roll of a fair six-sided die will show a 3, 4, 5, or 6."
  ],
  [
   "P5",
   "The next two flips of a fair coin will both land heads.",
   "The next two flips of a fair coin will not both land heads."
  ]
 ],
 "probabilities": {
  "P1a": 0.1667,
  "P1b": 0.8333,
  "P2a": 0.25,
  "P2b": 0.75,
  "P3a": 0.0769,
  "P3b": 0.9231,
  "P4a": 0.3333,
  "P4b": 0.6667,
  "P5a": 0.25,
  "P5b": 0.75
 }
}